Category: Lioui Benhamou

A Moderate Revolution

11/28/2016

A significant number of French voters are trusting this man to beat Marine Le Pen in the upcoming Presidential elections // Ph: UMP Photos/ Flickr

Analysis François Fillon won this weekend's primary and will be the main opponent to Front National's Marine Le Pen in the French Presidential Elections. We tell you what to expect from the months ahead

Lioui Benhamou

He has done it. Although no one would have put their money on him a month ago, François Fillon, a former Prime Minister, won yesterday the primary for Les Républicains, the centre-right party in French Politics. He will be running for the presidency in the upcoming elections in May. Given the low approval ratings of the current president François Hollande and the wild fights inside the Socialist party, a Fillon-Le Pen race is now the most credible prospect for the French people.

Politically, 2016 has been characterised worldwide by unforeseen upsets, with outcomes deemed impossible by experts and pollsters becoming reality as votes were counted. The result of the centre-right primaries in France should therefore be seen in such global trend, yet without discarding the particular features of the French political environment.

The electoral system in France is characterised by two rounds. The French people vote a first time choosing among all the candidates — normally around 10 — that present themselves. Two weeks later, voters are called to cast a second ballot for one of the two candidates that performed best in the first round.

With such electoral system it is almost certain that Marine le Pen, whom according to the national polls currently sits at 30% of voters’ choices, will reach the second round, and most likely as the candidate with the most votes. Yet, because of the voting system, it will be difficult for her to win the Presidency.

This is the case because historically French people who usually vote for left-wing parties have chosen to settle for the less far right candidate at the second round. In 2002, for example, the Socialist Party did not reach the second round, leaving the electoral quest to Jacques Chirac and Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie. Due to the fear of having a far-right candidate actually becoming President, the electorate from the left and from the centre-right joined forces and massively voted for Chirac, who become president with 82.2% of the popular vote in the second round.

Historically, French people who usually vote for left-wing parties have chosen to settle for the less far-right candidate at the second round.

Similarly, during last year’s regional election, the Front National (FN) won in several regions at the first round of voting. Yet, after the second round they ended up not securing any region as both the electorate of the left and the moderate right voted for whoever was against the FN.

This unusual joining of forces comes from the fact that the Front National, especially under Jean-Marie’s leadership, has been known to have ties to neo-Nazi movements and to embrace racist and sexist ideals. Marine's aim since a couple of years ago has then been to distance herself from such image without disenfranchising the party’s electoral base. In fact, her new "movement" for next year's election does not quite focus its campaign on the Front National itself, but rather on the character and personal traits of its leader. Her new logo simply reads: "Marine Présidente" with a blue rose (blue being historically the colour of the right and the rose being the symbol of the Socialist Party).

However, after François Fillon’s win yesterday, her strategy will have to make some adjustments. Fillon might gain a few voters from her, as their programs do meet on some points. Fillon is gaining voters from conservative Catholics, by criticising the law that allows gays marriage. Moreover, he has promised to restart talks with Putin, something that is similar to Le Pen's foreign policy. Finally, Fillon has exploited identity politics in his discourse, for example by saying that immigrants need to adapt to the French culture.

Unlike Le Pen, however, Fillon is in favour of an ultra-liberal economic policy, which has granted him the nickname of “the French Thatcher”. He advocates for cuts of 500.000 public jobs and a reduction of corporate taxes. Thus if the most likely scenario happens – Fillon versus Le Pen in the second round – people will have to make a decision based on what they regard as the most important issue. Will they choose to vote for an extremist party with all the risks that such a move entails, or will they prefer to vote for an establishment candidate with a rather liberal economic agenda?

Whilst making predictions after the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and Donald Trump's victory in the United States seems risky now more than ever, it does seem like Fillon’s nomination has seriously reduced Marine Le Pen’s chances of getting into office next year. However, we will have to wait until May to see whether history proves such prediction wrong and the right-wing momentum takes over France. People across the world have recently shown they will to distance themselves from the elites and choose a future that no one predicted. It will be up to François Fillon to prove his worth – and convince the French people that he would indeed be a better choice than Marine Le Pen. TMM

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Politics in the time of climate change

11/19/2016

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Women wearing the masks of G8 leaders join a climate change protest in Dhaka, Bangladesh // Ph: Oxfam International/ Flickr

Interview The landmark Paris climate agreement has now come into force in the UK. In this interview with a respected environmental politics researcher, we find out more about the agreement and the socio-political aspects behind the issue of climate change

Lioui Benhamou

Our generation will face problems which have never been encountered before. Are we doomed to suffer the consequences of climate change? Can societies adapt the way they deal with the climate? What can we expect to happen? These questions are central to humanity, yet the science and politics behind them are not easy to grasp. Our discussion with Dr Carl Death, a senior lecturer at The University of Manchester, shed some light on the concepts and issues behind climate politics and seemingly grand successes such as the Paris agreement.

Your research is very much focused on the politics of climate change. But despite efforts by people like yourself to understand and analyse this issue, the public is still often unaware or uninterested in it. Why has there been a problem in communicating climate change to populations?
I think it is because environmentalists have operated with the assumption that if they can simply scare people enough about what is going on and what is going to happen, then change will come. But the scale of change and the scale of risk are so great that it gets quite disempowering. So people actually prefer to ignore it, and even forget about it.

How can we convince people to care?
It is important to try and make the case for how a society with a socio-economic system which is more sustainable would be a better and happier society. It is true that many people in the West have benefited a lot from fossil fuels and decades of economic growth. But you also have unequal cities and societies, segregated communities, an increase in the length of the working week – all without an increase in the level of happiness. We are working much longer, much harder than we did in the fifties in order to be in the same place. Thus I think this kind of radical far-reaching change is actually about more than climate. It is about the role of economic growth, the way societies are organised, and how power and wealth are distributed in societies.

Why has nothing really significant happened to reverse climate change?
Because the cost of climate change has not been lived by those who are in a position of power. The cost of climate change for the last decade or so has been lived primarily by poor, vulnerable and marginalised populations. If you are a farmer in Bangladesh or northern Kenya, then you have been feeling the effect of climate change for quite a long time, even if you haven't been able to attribute it to climate change. But those are not the populations which have the ability to change global politics, and powerful actors have a lot to gain from the status quo. You can travel around the world and see that the world we live in doesn't work for the majority of the people. But it works very well for a small minority who have very comfortable lives – including most of us here in Manchester, and at this university.

Carl Death speaking on a panel on fossil fuel divestment // Ph: TMM

Death at his Manchester office // Ph: Lioui Benhamou

Still, the international community has made some efforts, the most recent of which was the COP21 conference in Paris. Would you say that the Paris agreement was a victory, or just a theatrical performance like others we have seen before?
I think the Paris agreement represents a different sort of agreement. It is a bottom-up approach. States have agreed to act on climate change but they have not agreed on how much each will do. They have just said they will all act together. All states have agreed they are going to do something. So it is a success in that respect. But I think it comes out of the failure to come up with a binding international treaty that would be fair, just and effective.

So there was some theatre…
In terms of the theatrical element of it, I think these big summits always have an element of theatre about them. Which isn't always a bad thing. In fact, sometimes it would be more worrying if no one was watching the theatre and paying attention to the show, which is something to worry about in climate change governance.

Can we blame states for not taking enough action?
The history of climate change shows how difficult this issue is to govern internationally, and how much of a threat it represents to existing development paths. What is required is nothing less than a fundamental, radical revolution in global political economic and social structure. And that sort of thing is really hard to achieve. States have been quite enthusiastic in trying to address it, but the international system is very hard to change.

So how can we change it?
I think it is important to look at other sides of politics; to look beyond the state, to look at the way cities are run and to look at local communities. It is important to put activist pressure on cooperation, on universities and on councils. I think we will also have to stay focused on holding democratic nation states accountable, though.

Because even if cities do more, it might not be enough.
The question of what is enough is a difficult one. The question of climate change is not: "are we doing enough for the planet to survive?” The planet will be fine without us. Human civilisation… I'm relatively optimistic that we will find a way to carry on. We are quite an adaptable species. The real question is: "who will gain and who will lose?" And at the moment the poorest and most vulnerable populations in the world are the ones who tend to lose vast amounts from climate change.

I'm relatively optimistic that we will find a way to carry on. We are quite an adaptable species. The real question is: "who will gain and who will lose?"

If the system in place cannot resolve the issue, then would a kind of revolution be the solution?
Yes, but the key question is: a revolution of what kind? I would make a distinction between revolutionary change, or radical change, and a revolution. In the past, we have tended to think about a revolution as a violent change of government and socio-economic system. I don't think a revolution of that kind is needed. But I do think some sort of revolutionary change is. Where this comes from and what shape it takes, is a big and important question.

Do you have an answer for it?
I tend to think that far-reaching radical change can come from lots and lots of smaller changes. Look at the movements against slavery, for democracy, for colonial liberation, feminist movements and civil rights movements. These have often come as a result of thousands of smaller changes. I think change tends to happen on those scales, but still, they can radically change society. The same could happen for climate change.

Many people, like myself, want to help the cause of fighting climate change. So what should each of us do?
I think it is a question for people to answer in lots of different ways. There is no one right solution. An excellent starting point is being educated at university on the politics and science of climate change. I think universities do have a role to play in this sort of radical systemic change that we were talking about. I am more sceptical about the idea that if we all start recycling or riding a bike this will bring the level of change that is required. Going beyond active individual consumption is important. This could be by going to a climate march, entering into formal political processes, living an alternative lifestyle, joining an NGO or being involved in research. There are lots of ways.

Is the climate movement more organized than other civil society movements were in the past?
The contrast with others movements is appropriate. Because in the others cases you can see that some groups were directly affected by the issues. The feminist movement was always led by women who experienced various forms of discrimination and injustice from the patriarchy. Civil right movements were led by communities that were exploited and victimised by racist systems. And so on. But the environmental movement has a problem because the “victim” is so hard to define: either everyone, or “poor communities”, or even “nature”. And nature just doesn’t mobilise. So environmental justice movements have yet to find a way of framing the struggle which has a deep resonance across societies sufficient to create a willingness to make a real change. TMM

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Live: Attacks in Paris, France

11/13/2015

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Breaking State of emergency enforced and borders closed in France. We bring you all of the developments, as we get them

Jeanmiguel Uva
Deputy Editor
António Rolo Duarte
Editor-in-chief
Lioui Benhamou
Clara Maure

02:38 GMT
As events appear to have slightly settled on the ground in France, our live reportage is coming to a close tonight.

Here is what we know so far:

At least 111 people have died across France tonight and many more have been injured after a series of six attacks took place across Paris tonight. These attacks happened at restaurants, a shopping centre, the Bataclan concert hall and the Stade de France. It is at this point unclear who was behind the attacks.

French President François Hollande has declared a state of emergency in the entire country and closed the country's borders.
The military have been deployed and citizens are asked to stay inside.

World leaders have expressed their condolences to the French people and many offered to help however they can. British Prime Minister David Cameron said: "Our thoughts and prayers are with the French people. We will do whatever we can to help."

Students from the University of Manchester as well as members of the community solidary with the victims are expected to gather at Piccadily Gardens this Sunday. Speaking to The Manchester Magazine, Vice-President of the University of Manchester Francophone Society, Dorine Parravano said: "Facing terror, we have to stand united and proud of our values to defend our Nation, mobilise our forces and triumph from those terror attacks."

02:00 GMT
French President François Hollande has cancelled his upcoming visit to Turkey for the G20 summit.

01:11 GMT
French police believe there are still a number of gunmen on the loose, the AFP is reporting, even though three attackers were killed at the Balaclan concert hall almost an hour ago and one attacker had blown himself up at the Stade de France.

00:49 GMT
French students at the University of Manchester and those we wish to show solidarity with tonight's events will be gathering in Piccadily Gardens this Sunday November 15, 6pm. The event is being promoted through social media.

00:40 GMT
French President François Holland and Minister of the Interior Bernard Cazeneuve are heading for the Bataclan concert hall right now.

1500 troops mobilized in France and people are being asked to stay inside, but the situation seems to have calmed down for the moment.

00:29 GMT
If you are in France tonight, this is the emergency numbers you should call if needed:
0800406005

And these are the numbers to call if you have any lead for the police:
0177720614
0177720616
0177720617

00:25 GMT
The police operation has ended at the Bataclan concert hall. 100 people dead. Three attackers killed.

It appears that there were coordinated attacks at six locations in France tonight.

00:22 GMT
Speaking to The Manchester Magazine, Vice-President of the University of Manchester Francophone Society, Dorine Parravano said:

"I was frightened to learn tonight that Paris was once again victim of a terrorist attack. Except that this attack is unprecedented on the number of victims and the methods used.

"I knew my family was out in Paris tonight and hearing about the attacks on so many different parts of the capital was horrifying as I could not reach them for a while.

"Facing terror, we have to stand united and proud of our values to defend our Nation, mobilise our forces and triumph from those terror attacks."

00:17 GMT
100 deaths at the Bataclan concert hall.

00:09 GMT
French special forces have now concluded the intervention at the Bataclan concert hall. The total number of deaths is so far not known.

AlJazeera is reporting that two attackers have been killed and that French police at the site appear to be slightly more relaxed.
It appears that there were a total of four attack sites across Paris tonight.

23:57 GMT
United States President Barack Obama:

"This is an attack not just on Paris. It's an attack not just on the people of France. But this is an attack on all of humanity and the universal values we share.

"We're going to do whatever it takes to work with the French people and with nations around the world to bring these terrorists to justice.

"This is a heart-breaking situation, and obviously those of us here in the United States know what it's like. We've gone through these kinds of episodes ourselves, and whenever these kinds of attacks happen, we've always been able to count on the French people to stand with us."

23:53 GMT
French television channels have been asked not to broadcast images of the police assault on the Bataclan concert hall.

23:45 GMT
Special forces have entered the Bataclan concert hall, where 100 people are being held hostage.

There have been four explosions inside the concert hall itself, according to Le Figaro.

23:41 GMT
Metro line 3, 5, 8, 9 and 11 are stopped until further notice.

The explosions at the Stade de France is the very first suicide bombing ever in the history of France.

Every school and university to be closed tomorrow.

200 sentinel soldiers deployed in Paris.

23:25 GMT
A rough translation of what French President François Hollande has just said:

"Terrorist attacks of an unprecedented scale are happening. There were several dozens of deaths, there are many injured, it is a horror. We, after my decision, have mobilized all forces possible to neutralize the terrorists and secure the places concerned. I have also requested military reinforcements. I also called the council of ministers.

"Two decisions have been made. First, a state of emergency will be enforced over the entire territory. The second decison that I took, is the closure of borders, so that those who committed these crimes can be caught.

"We know where these attacks come from. We need to show compassion and solidarity but we also need to show unity. Facing terror, France must be tall, it must be strong. We need to call everyone to responsibility. What terrorists want is to scare us, make us dread. But there it is, facing the dread, a nation that knows how to defend itself. We haven't finished the operations. At this moment, security forces are fighting in Paris."

23:00 GMT
A number of explosions and shootings have taken place in multiple locations across Paris, France. The Department of Homeland Security of the United States has said that this was a likely a coordinated, well-planned attack.

The latest numbers are of 45 dead and several injured. Aproximately 100 people are being held hostage at the Bataclan concert hall in the 11th arrondissement, after bomb explosions close to the State de France and a shooting at a Cambodian restaurant.

French President François Hollande was at the State de France when the explosions happened. He is currently in a crisis room with the country's prime minister and minister of defense.

British PM David Cameron: "Our thoughts and prayers are with the French people. We will do whatever we can to help."

This is a developing story and we will bring you more updates as we know them.

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A Moderate Revolution

Politics in the time of climate change

Live: Attacks in Paris, France

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